ING statement helps support EUR in range

October 17, 2008

Dutch bank and insurance company ING shares were under intense pressure earlier in the day, prompting fears that they were the next shoe to drop. The bank put out a statement saying their capital is strong, yada, yada, helping stabilize their shares. this also helped underpin the euro to an extent. the single currency had already gotten a bounce from talk that credit conditions are beginning to ease in the interbank markets.

Resistance remains intact in the 1.3515/35 region while bids remain at 1.3400 and below. Range-bound markets should lower volatility and improve liquidity, helping ease trading conditions for the short-term speculator.


Pressure building on banks to lend

October 17, 2008

Dealers say the Feds have begun to phone around to the banks that have taken capital from the government with a clear message: Start lending, Boys. The shortest end of the yield curve is beginning to thaw with funding reportedly ample in the one-month maturity. It’s a start, and if it moves further out the curve, it will go a long way toward soothing rattled equity markets. This would likely translate into firmer commodity currencies and less demand for JPY. EUR/USD would likely be dragged up as well.


Everything’s beautiful in Germany *

October 17, 2008

*with apologies to Mel Brooks

Germany is relatively robustly positioned in the current financial crisis, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told the upper house of parliament in a speech Friday.

Calling the crisis the worst in 70 to 80 years, Steinbrueck said policy makers must act to help restore confidence in the frozen market.

“Without playing the matter down, I still believe that Germany compared to other countries is relatively robustly positioned, and the emphasis is on robustly. But this doesn’t mean that we aren’t dealing with serious distortions,” he said in a speech ahead of the Bundesrat upper house’s vote on the bailout plan for the financial sector.

Perhaps this is why Tremonti is calling for the New Order Bretton Woods and the Euro’s place in the world as kingpin currency.


Easy come, easy go

October 16, 2008

Stocks open lower after being up in pre-market. Lousy economic data and more worries about hedge fund liquidations continue to plague this market. News that Highland fund has closed is the latest source of worry.

EUR/JPY is down 1.5 yen in no time.  Uggh.


Swiss play catch-up with other big economies

October 16, 2008

Switzerland is a small country with big banks, a combination that has proven troublesome in recent weeks. It was a bit late to the party, but only by a few days. Here are some of the details.


The downside of the bailouts

October 16, 2008

Two weeks ago, it was the triumphalism of Europe versus the US. Today is is the politicians over the bankers. Europe got it in the teeth not much more than a week after declaring victory over the US. How lon before the politicians get theirs? This quote was particularly chilling:

“Let everyone remember after this crisis, who solved it. Politicians did, not bankers,” he said. Mr Juncker added that this episode would have a profound effect on the euro debate in Britain.


Talk on wire services of coordinated rate cut

October 16, 2008

Wire service and another source are reporting a possibility of another coordinated rate cut today. This comes on the heels of actions by SNB to shore up battered UBS and CS. One further shoe drop potential comes from a comment from an S&P credit analyst saying Russia’s BBB+ rating could be cut if reserves continue to hemorrhage. The question then becomes who bails out the Russians?


Emerging markets on the slide, Real money selling EUR/USD

October 15, 2008

It’s like deja vu all over again. Forget the G7, the TARP, the SARP and the rest of the global alphabet soup. The markets remain on the edge of panic and need these programs to begin gushing capital in a big, fat hurry.

Emerging markets are getting hammered again. Brazil, the shining start of the BRICs is down 10% at the moment with trading halted for a cooling off period. US investors have returned to the sell-side in EUR/USD, pushing prices down the 1.3510, the 50% retracement of the Friday/Monday rally. These guys have been selling in waves for the fourth session running.


Sarkozy: We’ve just begun to fight…

October 15, 2008

The EU response to the global financial crisis is not finished, says French president Sarkozy. No financial institution should escape regulation or supervision, including hedge funds, he says.

Signs of that were seen a short while ago as the ECB introduced new liquidity provision measures to try and free-up the credit markets.


The Belgians are coming! The Belgians are coming!

October 15, 2008

Fear not, Iceland. The Belgian finance minister is visiting on Friday to see how Belgium can help steer Iceland through the financial crisis. With one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in Europe, Belgium can offer hands-on experience.

Emerging markets are under pressure once again today, commodities are weak, and equities are selling off. All the government action taken in recent days has not yet made its impact felt on the credit markets. add to that, further evidence of weak consumer demand has the market looking at a prolonged period of weakness in the US and beyond.

That said, EUR/JPY holds up fairly well, maintaining its perch above important 136.95/137.0 support. It trades now at 137.50.