Fibos, fibos everywhere

USD/JPY sits at a 50% retracement of its bounce from Friday. A sustained break of 100.45/50 opens the way for a slide to 99.86. the 61.8% retracement of the 97.88/103.06 rally.

EUR/JPY approaching 61.8% Fibo

With 136.95 having given way on a sustained basis, the 61.8% retracement of the 132.25/141.65 rally is fast coming into focus at 135.85.

EUR/USD soft with stocks; Retracements eyed

Like EUR/JPY, EUR/USD is being dragged lower by falling equities, risk aversion, etc. In other words, the usual suspects. Downside levels to watch include session lows at 1.3533/36 and 1.3513, the 50% retracement of the bounce from 132.58 to 1.3769 first thing Tuesday morning in New York. 1.3453 is the 61.8% retracement of the same move.

EUR/JPY finding support at 50% retracement

EUR/JPY has given back about half the gains seen since the low at 132.25 posted late Friday. 136.95 is now a solid support with prices bouncing from there twice so far today. A break targets a slide to the 135.85 level. 138.95/95 is now solid resistance on rebounds.

USD/JPY chipping away at support at 101.85

USD/JPY is chipping away at hourly support at 101.85. A break targets a pullback to the 101.20/25 region. Further support lies at 100.60.

Tough to get bullish EUR/USD until 1.3780 cleared

I was just asked my view on EUR/USD. I’ll tell you just as soon as you tell me what is going to happen with equities. If we add significantly to our gains from early this week, EUR/USD should be able to overcome stout resistance at 1.3780 and test the 38.2% retracement of its 1.4865/1.3260 decline, which comes in at 1.3870.

A failure targets a dip to the 1.3450/1.3500 area.

A loss of intraday support around 1.3610 would trigger a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly charts with a downside target at, tada!, 1.3450.

Consolidation underway after explosive moves

Currency markets are taking a breather, awaiting the opening of cash markets on Wall Street. An explosive upside move in EUR/JPY finally ran into some serious supply in the 141.50 area, prompting a pullback to the present 140.65 level. EUR/USD has been dragged down as well but will find support from an uptrend drawn off Friday’s spike low at 1.3260 which comes in now at 1.3650. EUR/USD trades now at 1.3720.

EUR/JPY reaches 38.2% retracement

EUR/JPY’s recovery has reached 38.2% of the drop from 156.58 to 132.25. The 50% retracement is up at 144.42 if levels above 141.54 can be sustained.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In EUR/USD, levels to watch near-term are 1.3785, a top on Thursday and 1.3871, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4880/1.3252 decline of recent weeks. Risk aversion continues to ease as the market awaits specific steps tomorrow from the US to ease the credit crisis which may include a guarantee of bank debts to free up interbank lending markets, according to press reports.

Mind the gap!

In the wake of the Fed move on commercial paper, stocks have jumped and EUR/JPY has recovered. Dealers are mindful of the gap opened on the charts on Sunday night in Asia. Look for a quick move from 1.3700 to about 1.3775 to fill the void.